Estimated drop rates apply universally to all CS2 weapon cases. Key cost: $2.50 per opening.
Key cost: $2.50 per case opening. On average, you need to open ~385 cases ($962.50) for a knife/glove drop. Opening cases is not profitable on average — buying skins directly from the market is more cost-effective.
The odds of unboxing a knife or glove (Exceedingly Rare items) from a CS2 case are approximately 0.26%, or about 1 in 385 cases. This means on average you would need to open 385 cases ($962.50 at $2.50 per case + key) to get one knife. The actual knife you receive is randomly selected from the case's knife pool.
From a pure expected value standpoint, no CS2 case is profitable to open on average -- the house always wins. However, cases with expensive Covert skins and popular knife finishes offer the best potential returns. The Dreams & Nightmares Case, Revolution Case, and Kilowatt Case are popular choices due to their valuable Covert skins. If you want skins, buying directly from the market is always more cost-effective.
There are currently 52 weapon cases in CS2, with 3 in the active drop pool. Active cases can drop at the end of matches for free, while retired cases must be purchased from the Steam Market or traded. New cases are typically released alongside major game updates and operations.
The most expensive CS2 cases to purchase are typically the oldest retired ones with limited supply, such as the CS:GO Weapon Case (the original case) and the Bravo Case. These can cost $20-50+ each on the Steam Market. However, the most valuable cases to open are those containing the most expensive skins -- cases with Dragon Lore or Howl-tier skins command huge premiums.
CSBattle — provably fair case openings.
